Careser Glacier Breaking Up, Italy

The last year with a significant positive balance on the glacier was 1977, in the majority of years since 1980 the glacier has had no accumulation zone, which equates to an accumulation area ratio of zero (Carturan and Seppi, 2007). This translates to a glacier with no income of snow, but still plenty of losses via melting, which means the glacier cannot survive, and of course will drive the retreat (Pelto, 2010). Luca Carturan, University of Padova, provides both a chart of mass balance and a comparison of the glacier from 1967 to 2009, red bars indicate negative mass balance. The glacier has the longest mass balance record of any Italian glacier and the data is submitted annually to the World Glacier Monitoring Service. Carturan et al (2012) examine the mass balance distribution in more detail, in their Figure 2 the glacier is separated from its most western appendage (W), but the center part (C) is still connected to the main section (M) of the glacier, red dots are the around glacier watershed. . The images below are a series of Landsat images from 1999, 2003, 2009 and 2011. The red arrows indicate two narrow ice connections that were intact between the west-center-main part of glacier in 1999 and 2003. By 2009 the west section is not connected, and by 2011 the center connection is also gone. The deeper blue color of the glacier indicates a lack of snowcover, snowcover can be seen on the glaciers north of the ridge above the Careser Glacier. Careser Glacier fits the pattern of thinning, lack of accumulation zone and separation as seen at Presena Glacier, Dosde Glacier and Cavagnoli Glacier

Valdez Glacier Retreat, Alaska

In the early 20th century Valdez Glacier descended onto a glacial outwash plain that the city of Valdez, Alaska is built upon. Today the glacier has retreated into a mountain valley and is calving into an expanding lake. David Arnold in the Double Exposure project documenting climate change photographically has a pair of images from 1938 and 2007 of the glacier. This post examines Landsat and Ikonos images from 1987, 2001, 2005, 2007 and 2011 to document this retreat. The 1948 map of the glacier indicates no lake at the terminus of the glacier, and the braided glacier emanating from the end of the glacier still building the outwash plain, note airport just sw of terminus on plain. The terminus on each image is indicated in light red. Seven kilometers upglacier of the terminus is a secondary terminus in a side valley. In the 1948 map this terminus also joins the glacier descending the same valley, dark red arrow. With time both glacier termini retreat. By 1987 Landsat imagery indicates the development of a lake at the terminus and that the outwash plain is stabilizing, as indicated by complete vegetation development. By 2001 the west side of the lake is 1.5 from north to south, the east side still extends to the southern shore of the lake. By 2005 the eastern side of the terminus has collapsed and the terminus has retreated 1500 meters from the lakes southern shore. In 2007 Google Earth imagery the lakes is 1700 meters wide, and by 2011 the lake is 2 kilometers from north to south. The images below in order are Landsat 1987, Landsat 2001. Ikonos 2001, Ikonos 2005. Google Earth 2007 and Landsat 2011. >. In the 2007 image the orange line is the map terminus and the red line is the 2007 terminus indicating a retreat of 1800 meters.
The upper terminus dark red arrow is separated by three kilometers from the glacier descending the valley and now barely enters this side valley. This indicates upglacier thinning that will lead to continued retreat. Valdez Glacier is retreating mostly due to surface melt and thinning and to a lesser extent calving. The lake is not as deep nor the calving as rapid as other area glaciers Yakutat Glacier, Melbern Glacier and Grand Plateau Glacier

Norðurjökull outlet of Langjökull Retreat Iceland

Langjökull is the second largest icecap in Iceland with an area of 920 square kilometers (Jóhannesson (2009). One of the main outlet glaciers of Langjökull is the Norðurjökull which still reaches Hvítárvatn. Hvítárvatn is a large lake that recieves 70% of its inflow from Langjökull (Flowers et al, 2007). The lake has a maximum depth of 84 m and a surface area of 30 square kilometers. Glaciers in Iceland have begun a ubiquitous retreat since 1995, such as Tungnaarjökull and , Kötlujökull. Figure below is from Jóhannesson (2009). On Langjökull terminus fluctuations are not regularly observed and reported to the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). The mass balance of Langjökull has been reported to the since 1997, the glacier has lost 16 meters of water equivalent since 1997 (WGMS). This is 8-10% of the volume of the ice cap, and represent the loss of over 1 cubic kilometer of water equivalent per year from the glacier (Guðmundsson et al, 2008). In modelling studies this led Björnsson et al (2006) to project the loss of Langjökull in just over a century. Pope et al (2011) observed that Langjökull has lost an area of 3.4  2.5 km2 yr-1 over the decade.

Here we examine the changes in Norðurjökull from Landsat imagery in 1984, 1994, 2006 and 2009 and Google Earth imagery from 2005. The images are shown in chronologic order below. From 1984 (red line) to 1994 (yellow line) there was a minor advance of less than 100 meters and the glacier front in the lake remained 1.4 km wide. From 1994 to 2005/2006 (green line) the glacier retreated 350 meters, and by 2009 the retreat had reached 450 meters (orange line). This represents a retreat of 30 meters/year. In 2009 the glacier front has narrowed where it meets the lake to 600 meters.

Petain Glacier Retreat, Alberta

Petain Glacier’s meltwater feeds Petain Creek and then Upper Elk Lake in . The glacier like the vast majority in Alberta has been losing area and volume during its retreat.
Bolch et al (2010) noted that the glaciers in western Canada had on average lost 11% of their area from 1985 to 2005, 16% on the east slope of the continental divide in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta. As the glaciers retreat their meltwater that is primarily yielded in late summer when other sources are at a minimum is declining. It is anticipated that during this century glacier contributions to streamflow in Alberta will decline from 1.1 km3 a−1 in the early 2000s to 0.1 km3 a−1 by the end of this century Marshall et al (2011). Petain Glacier has a well defined moraine established during the Little Ice Age, green line. Retreat is examined by comparison of Google earth Imagery in 2005 and 2010 and Landsat imagery from 1994 and 2009. By 1994 the glacier had retreated 850 meters from the Little Ice Age moraine, and 900 meters by 2005 (orange line) and 930 meters by 2009. .
The retreat rate has been 4 meters/year recently. The retreat will continue as the blue arrows indicate locations where the glacier is thinning and exposing new areas of rock upglacier of the terminus. The red arrows indicate small lakes beyond the glacier terminus. The 2005 and 2010 images from Google Earth are tilted and indicate a 30 m retreat in the 5 years. In the image of the terminus below the blue arrow indicates the terminus the yellow arrows collapse features near the terminus indicating stagnation, the light green arrow indicates the thin debris covered area with surface stream channels again indicating stagnant conditions and retreat that will continue.

Epiq Sermia retreat, Greenland

Epiq Sermia is an outlet glacier of northwest Greenland, 70 km north of Jakobshavn Glacier. Epiq Sermia discharges 2-3% of the ice volume that Jakobshavn discharges. The glacier was observed to have had a small retreat in the first half of the 20th century and a minor advance in the 1960’s. Currently it is undergoing a more rapid retreat. This outlet glacier behaves as other Greenland marine terminating outlet glaciers, thinning at the terminus induced by greater basal and surface melting, triggers thinning which reduces basal friction and allows for acceleration and retreat. The glacier and its neighbor Kangilergnata Sermia have attracted recent research Rignot et al (2010) examined melting beneath the terminus tongue of both glaciers. They found rates of submarine melting 100 times larger than surface melt rates, but comparable to rates of iceberg discharge. Rignot et al (2010-PR) identified melt along the submerged bottom of Kangilergnata and Epiq Sermia where it comes into contact with warm ocean waters, which melts the glacier bottom, thinning the ice, shifting its grounding line, increasing its flotation, which leads to retreat. Figure 1 from Rignot et al (2010) indicates that water depths at the calving front are between 200-300 m deep, not that deep for the ice thickness observed..

A comparison of a 2001 and 2011 Landsat image overlain on Google Earth imagery identifies recent changes. The image comparison indicate average retreat of 1.1 kilometers over the 10 years for Epiq Sermia and 2.5 km for Kangilergnata Sermia, the yellow line is the 2001 margin and red line the 2011 margin. Thinning of Epiq Sermia is also apparent in the retreat upglacier from the terminus with the trimline being exposed and retreat at the secondary terminus into the lake. Retreat of the Epiq Sermia and Kangilergnata Sermia mirror that of other outlet glaciers, Howat and Eddy (2011) found that from 1964-2010 64% were retreating and from 2000-2010 98% of the outlet glaciers in NW Greenland were retreating. The also noted the average retreat rate rose from 20 m/year to 125 m/year, Howat and Eddy (2011). Specific examples of Umiamako Glacier, Upernavik Glacier and Kong Oscar Glacier.

Arhuey Glacier Retreat, Peru

The Cordillera Blanca, Peru has the greatest concentration of glaciers of any region in the tropics. Glacier mass balance losses and glacier area losses in this range have been large since 1990 (Rivera,INRENA) Laguna Arhueycocha is proglacial lake dammed by a glacier end moraine emplaced by the Arhuey Glacier (AG) during the Little Ice Age. The glacier currently terminates in this lake. Moraine dammed lakes can be a hazard as they expand since the moraine material that comprises the dam is relatively unstable. The glacier still filled the lake basin in 1963 photographs. By 1991 the lake was 500 meters long (Reynolds Geoscience, 2003) . In a 1999 Landsat image the lake is 750 meters long, by 2002 IKONOS imagery the lake and 2003 Google Earth imagery indicates a lake that is 1050 meters long, and finally in 2011 Landsat imagery the lake is 1200 meters long. The 2003 Google Earth image has the terminus position in red for 1991, purple 2002 and green 2011 indicated. The red arrow points to the artificial outlet channel. The 700 meter retreat since 1999 leaves only a tiny bit of the glacier in contact with the lake, and it appears the lake will not extend much further.
To relieve the threat of an expanding glacier lake breaking its dam, a (Reynolds Geoscience, 2003) 122 meter long channelthat is 12 meter deep was completed through the moraine to limit the surface elevation rise of the lake. The terminus in the 360 degree shot in Google Earth a snapshot of which is seen below, indicates the width of the glacier at the terminus is small and the terminus is quite steep, which given the thin nature of the ice, indicates a steep slope under the glacier, not a continuation of the lake basin.. The retreat of this glacier parallels the retreat of other nearby glaciers Llaca Glacier and Artesonraju Glacier

Himalaya Glacier Index

Himalaya-Pamir-Hindu Kush-Tien Shan-Quilian-Karakoram Range Glacier Change

Below is a list of individual glaciers in the Himalaya and high mountains of Central Asia that illustrate what is happening glacier by glacier. In addition to the individual sample glaciers we tie the individual glaciers to the large scale changes of approximately 10,000 glaciers that have been examined in repeat satellite image inventories. In the high mountains of Central Asia detailed glacier mapping inventories, from GLIMS: (Global Land Ice Measurements from Space), ICIMOD (International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development), ISRO ( Indian Space Research Organisation) and Chinese National Committee for International Association of Cryospheric Science (IACS) of thousands of glaciers have indicated increased strong thinning and area loss since 1990 throughout the region except the Karokoram. The inventories rely on repeat imagery from ASTER, Corona, Landsat, IKONOS and SPOT imagery. It is simply not possible to make observations
on this number of glaciers in the field.

Reqiang Glacier, Tibet———-Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal
Samudra Tupa, India———-Zemu Glacier, Sikkim
Theri Kang Glacier, Bhutan———-Zemestan Glacier, Afghanistan
Khumbu Glacier, Nepal———-Imja Glacier, Nepal
Gangotri Glacier, India———–Milam Glacier, India
Satopanth Glacier, India———-Kali Gandaki Headwaters, Nepal
Menlung Glacier, Tibet———-Boshula Glaciers, Tibet
Urumquihe Glacier, Tibet———-Sara Umaga Glacier, India
Dzhungharia Alatau, Kazakhstan———-Petrov Glacier,Kyrgyzstan
West Barun Glacier, Nepal—–Malana Glacier, India
Warwan Basin, India—–North Lhonak Glacier, Sikkim
Changsang Glacier, Sikkim——Emend River Headwaters, Afghanistan
Yajun Peak Glacier, Afghanistan—–Godur Glaicer, Pakistan
Tirich Mir, Pakistan—–Longbasba Glacier, Tibet
Lumding Glacier, Tibet—-Rongbuk Glacier, Tibet
Matsang Tsanpo Glacier, Tibet——-Sepu Kangri, China
Jiongla Glacier, Tibet—-Bode Zanbo Headwaters, Tibet
Zayul Chu Headwaters, TibetHkakabo Razi, Myanmar.
Jaonli Glacier, India
In the Russian Altai mapping of 126 glaciers indicate a 19.7 % reduction in glacier area 1952-2004, with a sharp increase after 1997 (Shahgedanova et al., 2010). In Garhwal Himalaya, India, of 58 glaciers examined from 1990-2006 area loss was 6% (Bhambri et al, 2011). They also noted the number of glaciers increased from 69 (1968) to 75 (2006) due to the disintegration of ice bodies. Examination of 466 glaciers in the Chenab, Parbati and Baspa Basin, India found a 21% decline in glacier area from 1962 to 2004 (Kulkarni, 2007). Glacier fragmentation was also observed in this study, which for some fragments represents a loss of the accumulation area, which means the glacier will not survive (Pelto, 2010). The India glacier inventory (ISRO, 2010) identified glacier area losses and frontal change on 2190 glaciers and found an area loss rate of 3.3% per decade and 76% of glaciers retreating. In the Nepal Himalaya area loss of 3808 glaciers from 1963-2009 is nearly 20% (Bajracharya et al., 2011). The Langtang sub-basin is a small northeast-southwest elongated basin, tributary of Trishuli River north of Kathmandu and bordered with China to the north. The basin contained 192 km2 of glacier area in 1977, 171 km2 in 1988, 152 km2 in 2000 and 142 km2 in 2009. In 32 years from 1977 to 2009 the glacier area declined by 26% (Bajracharya et al., 2011). In the Khumbu region, Nepal volume losses increased from an average of 320 mm/yr 1962-2002 to 790 mm/yr from 2002-2007, including area losses at the highest elevation on the glaciers (Bolch et al., 2011). The high elevation loss is also noted in Tibet on Naimona’nyi Glacier which has not retained accumulation even at 6000 meters. This indicates a lack of high altitude snow-ice gain (Kehrwald et al, 2008). The Dudh Koshi basin is the largest glacierized basin in Nepal. It has 278 glaciers of which 40, amounting to 70% of the area, are valley-type. Almost all the glaciers are retreating at rates of 10–59 m/year and the rate has accelerated after 2001 (Bajracharya and Mool, 2009). In the Tien Shan Range over 1700 glaciers were examined from 1970-2000 glacier area decreased by 13%, from 2000-2007 glacier area shrank by 4% a faster rate than from 1970-2000 (Narama et al, 2010).

An inventory of 308 glaciers in the Nam Co Basin, Tibet, noted an increased loss of area for the 2001-2009 period, 6% area loss (Bolch et al., 2010). Zhou et al (2009) looking at the Nianchu River basin southern Tibet found a 5% area loss. 1990-2005. Cao et al, (2010) completed an inventory of 244 glaciers in Lenglongling Range of Eastern Qilian Mountains from 1972 to 2007 and found a 23.5% loss in glacier area. The highest rate of 1% per year of area loss was identified from 2000 to 2007. In the Pumqu Basin, Tibet an inventory of 999 glacier from the 1974 & 1983 to 2001 indicated the loss of 9% of the glacier area and 10% of the glaciers disappeared (Jin et al, 2005).

Pan et al (2011) looking at the Gongga Mountains, China found a 11.3% area loss from 1966-2009. In the Wakhan Corridor, Pamir Range, Afghanistan 30 glaciers were examined over a 27 year period, 1976-2003, indicating that 28 of the glacier retreated with an average retreat of 294 m, just over 10 meters/yr (Haritashya, et al., 2009). The Karokoram is the one range where a mix of expansion and retreat is seen. The anomalous expansions are confined to the highest relief glaciers and appeared suddenly and sporadically (Hewitt, 2005). After decades of decline, glaciers in the highest parts of the central Karakoram expanded, advanced, and thickened in the late 1990s. Many of the largest glaciers in the Karakoram are still retreating including the Baltoro, Panmah and Biafo Glacier, albeit slowly (Hewitt, 2011).

A new means of assessing glacier volume is GRACE, which cannot look at specific changes of individual glaciers or watersheds. In the high mountains of Central Asia GRACE imagery found mass losses of -264 mm/a for the 2003-2009 period (Matsuo and Heki, 2010). This result is in relative agreement with the other satellite image assessments, but is at odds with the recent global assessment from GRACE, that estimated Himalayan glacier losses at 10% of that found in the aforementioned examples for volume loss for the 2003-2010 period (Jacobs et al, 2012). At this point the detailed glacier by glacier inventories inventories of thousands of glaciers are better validated and illustrate the widespread significant loss in glacier area and volume, though not all glaciers are retreating.

This page will continue to be updated as new inventory data is published and new individual glaciers are examined herein. Yao et al (2012) in an examination of Tibetan glaciers observed substantial losses of 7090 glaciers.

Reqiang Glacier Retreat, Tibet

Requiang Glacier, Tibet is just east of Shishapangma Mountain one of planets 14 8000 meter peaks and terminates in the rapidly expanding Kong Tso (lake) at 5200 meters. The glacier is fed by avalanching from the high slope of Molamenqing the eastern satellite peak of Shishapangma, the black outline is the boundary of the glacier’s watershed. The glacier has been undergoing a rapid retreat since 1977. The area of Reqiang Glacier decreased by 22.90 % and retreated 71 m/year from 1977-2003 (Che et al., 2005). A comparison of Landsat imagery from 2000, Google Earth Imagery from 2004 and Landsat imagery from 2009 and 2011 indicates a more rapid retreat has ensued of 300 meters from 2000-2004, 75 m/ year, similar to the 1977-2003 period. From 2004 to 2011 the glacier retreated 1300 meters, 185 m/year. The net retreat of 3100 meters since 1977 is close to 50% of the glacier length lost since 1977. The red arrows are just west of two ridges and point to the 2004 terminus. The 2000 terminus is right near the ridges, red line, the 2011 terminus at the green arrow and green line This story fits with the behavior of other glaciers in the area. For example Menlung Glacier, Tibet and Their Kang, Bhutan. In Li et al (2011) it is noted that increasing temperature, especially at altitude, the fronts of 32 glaciers have retreated, mass losses of 10 glaciers have been considerable, glacial lakes in six regions have expanded and melt water discharge of four basins has also increased. An inventory of 308 glaciers in the Nam Co Basin, Tibet, noted an increased loss of area for the 2001-2009 period, 6% area loss (Bolch et al., 2010). A look at the Reqiang Glacier with the 2011 Landsat Image superimposed and georeferenced in Google Earth, indicates how small the glacier is versus Kong Tso and its previous size. Given the access to high elevation avalanching, this glacier seems unlikely to disappear; however, its retreat is indicative of warming even at higher elevations.

Tyndall Glacier Retreat, Kenya

The snows of Mount Kilimanjaro are more famous, but Mount Kenya is even closer to the equator and host to a number of glaciers that are rapidly diminishing. The Tyndall Glacier is the second largest glacier on the mountain. Stephen Hastenrath, University of Wisconsin in particular has documented the changes of Mount Kenya glaciers. In a color version of the map from the WGMS FOG 9that Hastenrath produced on page 9 of the link above the changes in the glacier from 1893 to 2004 are shown. The glacier retreated from Tyndall Lake in the late 1920’s. By 2004 the glacier was 275 meters from the lake. In the more recent Google Earth imagery the retreat is 360 meters Mizuno (2005) observed retreat rates of 3 meters per year from 1958 to 1997 and 10 meters per year from 1997-2002. The Google Earth imagery of 2011 indicates that the terminus is still retreating at 9-10 meters per year. The photographic sequence below from Mizuno (2005) indicates considerable thinning of the glacier even its upper reaches. This suggests the glacier not only has strong negative mass balance but also lacks a persistent accumulation zone, without which it cannot survive (Pelto, 2010). The last image below is the current Google Earth view tilted to provide a comparable view to the time sequence. Mizuno (2005) also focussed on the vegetation of the newly deglaciated terrain observing that pioneer species such as groundsel , alpine rockcress, mosses, and lichen recolonized the area at a rate similar to the glacier retreat rate. The first colonizers developed within five years of glacier retreat. Hastnerath (2006) observes that increased net shortwave radiation led to the initial recession in the late nineteenth century and that recently the increased retreat on Mount Kenya is due to the greenhouse effects. The retreat of Mount Kenya glacier is similar to the scale seen in the Rwenzori Range. The largest glacier on Mount Kenya is Lewis Glacier which averages just 18 meters in thickness and has lost 90% of its volume since 1934. This suggest Tyndall Glacier is also quite thin (Prinz et al, 2011).

Taconnaz Glacier Retreat, Mont Blanc, France

The Taconnaz Glacier flows from 4300 m to 2000 m down the west side of Mont Blanc, from the Dôme du Goûter toward the Chamonix Valley. This glacier is best known for the large avalanches that are generated by the break off of large serac ice blocks from a wide ice cliff at 3300 m during the winter, blue arrows (Le Meur and Vincent, 2006). The ice blocks have been devastating to inhabited areas of the Chamonix valley as recently as 1999. A comparison of 2004 and 2009 imagery in Google Earth indicates that the main terminus (A) has retreated 200 meters in five years. The orange line is the 2004 margin and 2009 is the red line. Taconnaz is two glaciers south of Mer de Glace, which retreated 500 m from 1994-2008, and several glaciers south of Glacier d’Argentiere, which retreated 400m from 2000-2010. There has also been a large retreat in the vicinity of Point B which is where a secondary terminus used to be connected to the main valley glacier. This retreat indicates that above the terminus there is a reduction in the volume of ice heading down valley. This suggest retreat will continue.
The avalanche hazard has prompted construction of avalanche defenses that are well documented in photographs, such as the one below. This site on Mont Blanc glaciers also has nice images of the terminus glacier from 2010 indicating a much more robust terminus than Mer de Glace, based on the crevassing and glacier thickness. The avalanche protection worked in 2006 slowing an April avalanche.

Rohss Bay Glacier Retreat, James Ross Island, Antarctica

In January 1995 the Prince Gustav Ice Shelf connecting James Ross Island to the Antarctic Peninsula collapsed (Glasser et al 2011). One of the principal glaciers feeding the iceshelf was the outlet glacier from Rohss Bay on James Ross Island. By 1999 this outlet glacier terminus was at the outlet of Rohss Bay. From 1999 to 2009 Rohss Bay opened up as the Rohss Bay glacier retreated 15 km. This retreat represents part of the extensive ice loss, 490 square kilometers for the island from 1988-2009 Davies et al (2011). From 1988-2001, 91 of 100 glaciers on the island examined by Davies et al (2011) retreated. Imagery from the field work by the LARISSA project in the region provides excellent context for the region. A combination of Landsat and Google Earth Imagery from 1999, 2000, 2008 and 2010 illustrates this change in a sequence below. The margin is indicated in each case as is an unnamed island by an arrow at the southwest end of Rohss Bay. Most of the ice loss was the breakup of a floating ice shelf in the bay. Glasser et al (2011) provide a sequence from 2002-2006 that illustrates most of the retreat occurring in this five year period. Currently most of the floating ice of the bay has been lost and retreat should slow down considerably. The ice was lost not through surface melting, but via calving. The typical sequence for ice shelf collapse is thinning from basal and surface melt increases, that leads to weakening and destabilization of the iceshelf, expansion of rifting and then breakup. The retreat on James Ross Island is also observed on the island to the north Vega Island.

Tunsbergdalsbreen Glacier Retreat, Norway

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has an excellent glacier monitoring program. Of these ten drain the largest ice cap in Norway the Jostedalsbreen, from 2008-2013 the net change was retreat on all 11. The largest outlet glacier Tunsbergdalsbreen is not one of the closely monitored glaciers. This glacier flows southeast from the icecap, is 18 km long and terminates at 670 meters in a new proglacial lake.

Examination of Tunsbergdalsbreen in Landsat imagery from 1989, 2003, 2011 and 2014. The violet arrows indicate the terminus. In 1989 no lake is evident. By 2003 the lake has begun to develop and has icebergs in it. In 2011 the lake is 400 meters across and has numerous icebergs in it. In 2014 the lake has expanded to a length of 700 m. The glacier is fed by several tributaries coming off the ice cap. At the #3 green arrow, bedrock is by 2010 in the midst of an icefall from the upper ice sheet that was underneath the glacier in 1989 and 2003. At green arrows #1 and #2 the area of bedrock exposure is expanding, indicating thinner and less ice draining from the ice cap into the tongue of the Tunsbergdalsbreen. In 2003, 2011 and 2014 the snowline is at 1450 m, too high to sustain the glacier, the negative mass balance will drive further retreat.

1989 Landsat image

2003 Landsat image

2011 Landsat image
tunsbergdalsbreen 2014
2014 Landsat image

A closeup of the terminus from Google Earth indicates a number of debris covered ice bergs in the lake. This combined with the observed thinning upglacier indicates that retreat will continue. Exposure of bedrock upglacier occurs because of thinning, which only occurs because of mass balance loss which also results in velocity and discharge reductions.

At present the Tunsbergdalsbreen is the focus of an ongoing field  project that aims to monitor the glacier on an annual basis documenting the impact of climate change. This project is focussing on monitoring the elevation of the glacier surface, the ice velocity and the front position. Video of the project are also worth examining.  In two of these images below, the red arrows in each indicate the thin relatively uncrevassed lower reach.  The low slope suggests the lake basin will continue to expand as this area is lost.  These are 2013 images and in fact some of this retreat has occurred.  Upglacier of the red arrows there is limited crevassing but the slope does increase.
In 2010 -2014 glacier mass balances across Norway were negative. The nearby Sporteggbreen Glacier is experiencing signficant area and volume loss.

2012 Google Earth Image.

tunsberg panorama
tunsberg terminus 2013

Images above from Pål Gran Kielland at the Norsk Bremuseum, a partner in the Tunsbergdalsbreen Project.