Nooksack River: Glacier Runoff Maintains Suitable Aquatic Conditions for Salmon

On May 21, 2015May 3, 2024 By mspeltoIn glacier climate change, Glacier Observations, North Cascade Glaciers

Illustration from Megan Pelto above left

Sholes Glacier from our runoff measurement station above right.

Glaciers are a critical water resource in the North Cascades of Washington for hydropower, irrigation , municipal supply and aquatic life. In dry summers glaciers play an even larger role in the overall water budget and maintaining suitable aquatic conditions. The summer of 2015 will pose particular challenges due to the drought emergency that is likely to persist and we will be investigating the role glaciers play. During the last three years in an ongoing study with the Nooksack Indian Tribe we have been working on quantifying the role glaciers play in that watershed. Glaciers comprise the headwaters of the Nooksack River and are a critical source of summer discharge and greatly influence summer stream temperatures. There are nine species of salmon in the watershed that the Nooksack Indian Tribe depends on for cultural, subsistence, and economic uses. Climate change is an additional new threat to salmon that has caused and will continue to cause an increase in winter flow, decreased summer baseflow, and increased summer water temperatures as noted by (Isaak et al, 2011). Abatzaglou et al (2014) note a reduction in summer and autumn precipitation coupled with increased potential evapotranspiration causing larger climatic water deficits over the past four decades in the Pacific Northwest.

Nooksack Watershed map with Mount Baker glaciers.

This post will focus on the changing impact of glaciers on streamflow and the evolving water temperature threat. The Nooksack River watershed has three significant watersheds, South Fork, Middle Fork and North Fork. The South Fork has no glaciers. The Middle Fork has four significant glaciers and 2% of the watershed area above the USGS gage is glaciated. The North Fork has 12 significant glaciers that cover 6% of the watershed area above the USGS gage. This difference in glacier cover allows identification of the role of glaciers when combined with measurements of melt on and runoff from the glaciers. Here we examine stream discharge and water temperature at USGS gages on each stream to illustrate the different response to 12 warm weather events during the summers of 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2013. During each of these periods we have, along with Oliver Grah and Jezra Beaulieu, working for the Nooksack Tribe, been observing the ablation and runoff directly from the glaciers. The largest area of glaciers are those on Mount Baker, a strato volcano that is the highest mountain in the North Cascades. Pelto and Brown (2012) note that terminus observations on the nine principal Mount Baker glaciers, 1984–2009, indicate retreat ranging from 240 to 520 m, with a mean of 370 m or 14 m/year. Pelto and Brown (2012) observed that this is the result of a sustained mass balance loss averaging -0.5 m/year during the 1990-2010 period. This equates to an 11-m loss in glacier thickness, 12–20% of the entire 1990 volume of glaciers on Mount Baker. This summer we will for the 32nd consecutive year be measuring glacier mass balance on Mount Baker.

Measuring snow depth in crevasse on Mount Baker glacier.

Jezra Beaulieu at Runoff measurement Gage

During each of these warm weather events ablation was measured on glaciers in the basin. For stream discharge, a 10% increase is set as the key threshold for significant response to each warm weather event. For the North Fork 10 of 12 warm weather events exceeded the limit, in the Middle Fork 4 of 12 events had a significant response and for the South Fork none of the 12 events led to a 10% flow increase. It is apparent that warm weather events increase glacier melt, thus enhancing flow in the North Fork. In a basin without glacier runoff the hydrologic system consistently experiences reduced discharge.

2009 stream discharge variation of the three Nooksack forks, warm water events within ellipse.

2010 stream discharge variation of the three Nooksack forks, warm water events within ellipse.

For water temperature, an increase of 2° C is the threshold of significance used for response to warm weather events. In each the North Fork and Middle Fork, 2 of 12 events exceeded this threshold, and for the South Fork 12 of 12 events exceeded this threshold, each event is a gold ellipse on the charts below. Warm weather events consistently generate a significant increase in stream water temperature only in the non-glaciated South Fork Basin. During 6 of these 12 warm events, runoff measurements below Sholes Glacier and ablation measurements on Sholes and Easton Glacier indicate daily ablation ranging from 0.05-0.06 meters per day, which for the North Fork currently yields 9.5-11 m3/second. This is 40-50% of the August mean discharge of 24 m3/second, despite glaciers only covering 6% of the watershed. Increased glacier discharge largely offset the impact of increased air temperature on stream water temperature during the warm weather events. In the charts below note the red line with diamond markers that is the South Fork stream temperature and the in the graph above the top brightest blue line that is North Fork discharge and what happens during the warm events, gold ellipses. Also note the South Fork discharge bottom blue line in the graph above does not respond nor does the North Fork stream temperature red line with triangles, below.

The frequency of significant response of each watershed to the 12 warm weather events.

Daily and cumulative ablation during the 2014 melt season.

2009 Temperature record for the South Fork, North Fork and Middle Fork, warm water events within ellipse.

2010 Temperature record for the South Fork, North Fork and Middle Fork, warm water events within ellipse.<

As the glaciers continue to retreat the North Fork will trend first toward the more limited impact of the Middle Fork and then the highly sensitive South Fork where warm weather leads to declining streamflow and warming temperatures. Our ongoing measurements of daily runoff and daily streamflow below Sholes Glacier allow determination of the contribution of glaciers to the North Fork Nooksack, which peaked in 2014 at 80% of total streamflow. Reductions in glacier runoff will put stress on the salmon in the watershed. The Washington Dept of Fish and Wildlife monitors the salmon population, which in the North Fork migrate 40 km upstream of the junction with Nooksack River to Nooksack Falls. The salmon population which is threatened, shows no sign of recovery in the last decade, the good returns in 2002 reflect good water conditions in 1999-2000 for salmon fry. Continued glacier loss and reduced summer streamflow will lead to a situation similar to the Skykomish River where the number of low flow days has sharply increased. The retreating glaciers include the Sholes, Roosevelt,Deming and Mazama.

Glacier runoff in the North Fork Nooksack in 2014, product of observed ablation and glacier area, also percent of total flow.

WFDW Governor’s Salmon Recovery Office data for North Fork Nooksack.

Skykomish River, Washington Reduced Minimum River Flow and Glacier Retreat

On May 19, 2015May 3, 2024 By mspeltoIn glacier climate change, Glacier Observations, North Cascade Glaciers

Fording the outlet of Blanca Lake, headwater North Fork Skykomish River.

The focus this spring has been on the developing drought in Washington as a result of record low snowpack, the winter was a record warmth though not dry. The focus of this article is on another component of many alpine watersheds, glacier runoff, both the ameliorating role and their reduced ability as they shrink to augment flow during low flow periods. Glaciers act as natural reservoirs storing water in a frozen state instead of behind a dam. Glaciers modify streamflow releasing the most runoff during the warmest, driest periods of summer, when all other sources of water are at a minimum. Annual glacier runoff is highest in warm, dry summers and lowest during wet, cool summers. This is the first of two posts looking at the response of specific alpine watersheds to glacier change and glacier runoff, the second will look at the Nooksack River.

Watersheds in mountainous Pacific Northwest are comprised of pluvial, nival and glacial segments. The pluvial segments have peak flows in the winter due to the winter storm events (Dery et al., 2009). Nival streams peak in the May and June with the high snowmelt, and glacially fed streams peak in July and August during peak glacier melt (Pelto, 2008; Dery et al., 2009). The loss of glaciers from a watershed then reduces streamflow primarily during minimum flow periods The amount of glacier runoff is the product of surface area and ablation rate. The glacier retreat and loss of glacier runoff has been quite pronounced in the Skykomish River Basin, North Cascades, Washington from 1950-2014 (Pelto, 2011). This summer we will return to make observations on 4 glaciers in this watershed for the 32nd consecutive year. We will be measuring flow with the Nooksack Indian Tribe again this year below glaciers, and we will observe the drought impact on the glaciers and downstream.

Skykomish Basin Map-Light blue arrows indicate the four main glaciers: 1=Columbia, 2=Hinman, 3=Foss, 4=Lynch

An analysis comparing USGS streamflow records for the Skykomish River at Gold Bar for the 1950-1985 to the 1985-2009 period indicates that during the recent period the Skykomish River summer streamflow (July-September) has declined 26% in the watershed, spring runoff (April-June) has declined 6%, while winter runoff (November-March) has increased 10% (Figure 1). The reduction of the glacial melt component augmenting summer low flows is already resulting in more low-flow days in the North Cascade region. In the Skykomish River watershed from 1958-2009 glacier area declined from 3.8 km2 to 2.1 km2, a 45% decline (Pelto, 2011). Columbia, Foss, Hinman and Lynch Glacier, the primary glaciers in the basin, declined in area by 10%, 60%, 90% and 35% respectively since 1958. Annual mass balance measurements completed from 1984-2009 on Columbia, Foss and Lynch Glacier indicate a mass loss of 13.1 m w.e. Despite 15% higher ablation rates during the 1985-2009 period, the 45% reduction in glacier area led to a 38% reduction glacier runoff between 1958 and 2009. This means less glacier runoff in late summer.

Change in seasonal discharge in the Skykomish River. Increase in winter, decrease in summer.

Foss Glacier retreat.

Lynch glacier Retreat

Hinman Glacier, view from former terminus

Columbia Glacier losing its snowcover in the accumulation zone.

Columbia Glacier Retreat. Detailed report.

A key threshold of in-stream flow levels considered insufficient to maintain short term survival of fish stocks is below 10% of the mean annual flow (Tennant, 1976). For the Skykomish River 10% of mean annual flow is 14 m3s-1. In the Skykomish River from 1950-2013 there have been 230 melt season days with discharge below 14 m3s-1. Of these 228, or 99% of the low flow days, have occurred since 1985. The loss of 30-40% of the glacier runoff is a key reason for the onset of critical low flow days. Of more concern for aquatic life is the occurrence of extended periods of low flow (Tennant, 1976). From 1929-2009 in the Skykomish River basin there have been eight years where streamflow dropped below 14 m3s-1 for 10 consecutive days during the melt season, 1986, 1987, 1992, 1998, 2003, 2005, 2006 and 2007. It is likely that 2015 will join this list.

Number of days when flow fell below 10% of the long term mean annual flow. Only one day from 1950 to 1985 met this criteria. Precipitation has not declined substantially during this interval, hence earlier snowmelt, reduced glacier runoff and greater evapotranspiration must be causing the increase in late summer low flow periods. The 38% reduction in glacier runoff did not lead to a significant decline in the percentage summer runoff contributed by glaciers under average conditions; the contribution has remained in the range of 1-3% from July-September. The glacier runoff decline impacted river discharge only during low flow periods in August and September. In August, 2003 and 2005 glacier ablation contributed 1.5-1.6 m3s-1 to total discharge, or 10-11% of August discharge. While declining glacier area in the region has and will lead to reduced glacier runoff and reduced late summer streamflow, it has limited impact on the Skykomish River except during periods of critically low flow, below 14 m3s-1 when glaciers currently contribute more than 10% of the streamflow.

For 2015 the lack of snowpack in the Skykomish Basin is evident from a comparison of images from April 20th 2015 and June 4th, 2014. Snowpack during 2014, an average winter, was higher in mid-June than in mid-April in 2015. Arrows in each side by side are in same location. This indicates that the pluvial and nival segment of flow to the Skykomish River will be at a minimum late this summer. Currently flow at the USGS gage in Gold Bar is 28% of normal at 2050 CFS, which is an all time low for the record that begins in 1929, previous low in 1977 at 2755 CFS. The river has not reached 2750 CFS the entire month of May. Glacier flow has continued to decline with area extent losses. This combination makes it likely, that the Skykomish River will have an extended period of low flow this summer and into the fall. If the summer is drier than average, flows will likely reach a new minimum.

Snowpack comparison in the area of the North Fork Skykomish near Columbia Glacier (C) in April 2015 compared to a snowier June, 2014.

Snowpack comparison in the area of the South Fork Skykomish near Lynch Glacier (D) in April 2015 compared to a snowier June, 2014.

Terminus image of Columbia Glacier in March 2015 (below) with less overall snow than in the image above from August, 2013. (picture below from Rowan Stewart)

Sholes Glacier, Washington: Measuring Annual Glacier Mass Balance

On April 23, 2015May 3, 2024 By mspeltoIn glacier climate change, Glacier Observations, North Cascade Glaciers

Annual mass balance is the difference between ice and snow added to the glacier via accumulation and snow and ice lost via ablation and in some cases calving. Alpine glacier mass balance is the most accurate indicator of glacier response to climate and along with the worldwide retreat of alpine glaciers is one of the clearest signals of ongoing climate change (WGMS,2010). For 25 consecutive years we (North Cascade Glacier Climate Project) have measured the mass balance of Sholes Glacier. On Sholes Glacier in 2014 we completed 162 measurements of snowpack depth using probing and crevasse stratigraphy, mainly probing on this relatively crevasse free glacier. We mapped the extent of snowcover on several occasions, and using the retreat of the snowline and stakes emplaced in the glacier observed the rate of ablation (melting). We also measured runoff from the glacier in a partnership with the Nooksack Indian Tribe, which provided an independent measure of ablation. The final mass balance in 2014 was -1.65 m of water equivalent, the same as a 1.8 meter thick slice of the glacier lost in one year. In 2014 we arrived at Sholes Glacier to find it already had 15% blue ice exposed, on August 7th. This had expanded to 25% by August 12th. This rapidly expanded to 50% by August 23rd, note Landsat comparison below. The snow free area expanded to 60% by the end of August and then close to 80% loss by the end of the summer. Glaciers in this area need 60% snowcover at the end of the melt season to balance their frozen checkbook. This percentage is the accumulation area ratio. This mass balance data is then reported to the World Glacier Monitoring Service, along with about 110 other glaciers around the world. Unfortunately the WGMS record indicates that Global alpine glacier mass balance was negative in 2014 for the 31st consecutive year. The video below explains how we measure mass balance each year with footage from the 2014 field season. Of course a key aspect is hiking to the glacier and camping in a tent each year.

The Sholes Glacier thickness has not been measured, but there is a good relationship between area and thickness, that suggests the glacier would average between 40 and 60 m in thickness. The 15 m of water equivalent lost from 1990-2014 is equal to nearly 17 m of ice thickness, which would be at least 35% of the glaciers volume lost during our period of measurement.

Sholes Glacier on August 7, 2014 and Sept. 15 2014, the glacier had lost 80% of its snowcover at this point an indicator of poor mass balance 2014.

Landsat 8 images of Sholes Glacier in 2014, with red line indicating snow line.

Measuring Accumulation on a glacier using Probing and crevasse stratigraphy.

Base Camp where we have spent more than 100 nights in a tent in the last three decades.

Columbia Glacier year by year

On September 14, 2009June 2, 2011 By mspeltoIn North Cascade Glaciers2 Comments

The following pictures give a year by year view of Columbia Glacier within one day of August 1. The best year was 1999, the worst, 2005.The snowy peaks of the Monte Cristo region can be seen from the Everett area. With 30 glaciers many at low altitudes, this region may receive more snow than any other region in the North Cascades. The largest and lowest is Columbia Glacier occupying a deep cirque above Blanca Lake and ranging in altitude from 4600 to 5700 feet. Kyes, Monte Cristo and Columbia Peak surround the glacier with summits over 2000 feet above the glacier. The Monte Cristo range is the first major rise that weather systems coming off the ocean encounter on the way east to the Cascade Crest. As a result precipitation is heavy. During the summer if it is raining anywhere in the North Cascades it will be in the Monte Cristo region. The glacier is the beneficiary of heavy orographic lifting over the surrounding peaks, and heavy avalanching off the same peaks. We measure the mass balance of this glacier each year and report the data to the World Glacier Monitoring Service. The location is gorgeous as seen in this painting by Jill Pelto Despite the advantages of snow accumulation the glaciers mass balance since 1984 has average -0.5 m a year for a cumulative loss of 13 m. For a glacier that averages 60 m in thickness this is over 20% of its volume. Details of the mass balance research and methods are at

Columbia Glacier has retreated 134 m since 1984. Lateral reduction in glacier width of 95 m in the lower section of the glacier and the reduction in glacier thickness are even more substantial as a percentage. The major issue is that the glacier is thinning as appreciably in the accumulation zone in the upper cirque basin as at the terminus. This indicates a glaciers that is in disequilibrium with current climate and will melt away with a continuation of the current warm conditions. The glacier has lost 17 m in thickness since 1984, but still remains a thick glacier, over 75 meters in the upper basin and will not disappear quickly.

A lateral moraine deposited during the Little Ice Age, is visible at the western edge of the glacier, descending below the glacier to 4250 feet. This moraine has little vegetation on the inside, but is vegetated on the outside. Just in front of the terminus are two terminal moraines deposited during retreat in the last 20 years. Facing southeast Columbia Glacier is protected from any afternoon sun except during the summer. During the winters storm winds sweep from the west across Monte Cristo Pass dropping snow in the lee on Columbia Glacier. Avalanches spilling from the mountains above descend onto and spread across Columbia Glacier. The avalanche fans created by the settled avalanche snows are 20 feet deep even late in the summer. Nearly a third of the glacier is covered by avalanche fans, but no summer avalanches have been observed. Avalanches, shading from the sum provided by the high peaks, and wind drift snow deposition permits Columbia Glacier to exist at such a low altitude.