Rikeva Glacier, Novaya Zemlya 2000-2025 Retreat Releases New Island

**Rikeva Glacier retreat in Landsat images from 2020 and 2025. Illustrates new island at Point A and retreat of land terminus at Point B and from headland at Point C.**

Rikeva (Rykacheva) Glacier flows from the Northern Novaya Zemlya Ice Cap to the west coast and the Barents Sea. The glacier has been retreating rapidly like all tidewater glaciers in northern Novaya Zemlya (Pelto, 2016) (Carr et al 2014 ) identified an average retreat rate of 52 m/year for tidewater glaciers on Novaya Zemlya from 1992 to 2010. Maraldo and Choi (2025) identified frontal retreat rate of Novaya Zemlya glaciers from 1931-2021 and found an increased each decade since the early 1970s, reaching a peak retreat rate of 65 m/year between 2011 and 2021. We have observed the impact at Vilkitskogo Glacier and Krayniy Glacier,

In 2000 Rikeva Glacier extended beyond the island that would emerge at Point A. The landbased terminus lobe extended just beyond Point B. By 2013 the glacier had retreated adjacent to the island, with the island acting as a stabilizing point for the terminus. The terminus lobe had retreated just south and east of Point B.

**Rikeva Glacier in Landsat images from 2000 and 2013 illustrating retreat to island at Point A and retreat of land terminus at Point B.**

In 2018 Rikeva Glacier terminus rested on an island at Point A that acted as a buttress for the glacier terminus. By 2025 the glacier had retreated from the island with 4.5 km² of glacier retreat since 2018 and 8 km² of retreat since 2000.

**Rikeva Glacier in Sentinel images from 2018 and 2025 illustrates retreat from Island at Point A**.

Twins Glacier, Wind River Range Wyoming is Vanishing

On October 25, 2025October 26, 2025 By mspeltoIn glacier climate change, Wind river rangeLeave a comment

Twins Glacier in Sentinel 2 images late in the melt season in 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025. The darker blue is bare ice and the light blue is snow cover. This illustrates the lack of significant snow covered area each of these summers.

Twins Glacier in the Wind River Range of Wyoming is nestled on the north side of a ridge extending from Winifred Peak to The Buttress, in Titcomb Basin. Titcomb Basin is high alpine basin that lacks trees and has many alpine lakes. The basin was named for brothers Charles and Harold Titcomb, who were some of the first to explore the area in 1901. The Wind River Range was inhabited by the Sheepeater Shoshone (Tukudika) tribe as far back as 2000 BC. This tribe relied on bighorn sheep as a key staple and did not utilize horses, both adaptations useful for alpine terrain. Fur trappers were active in the region going back to the 1830s including Charles Fremont for which Fremont Peak on the east side of the basin is named. Titcomb Basin remains popular with climbers today.

Devisser and Fountain (2015) identified Wind River Range glaciers lost 47% of their area from 1900-2006. Li et al (2025) indicate a thinning rate of 0.58 m/year on Wind River Range glaciers from 2000-2019, representing a cumulative loss of 11.6 m. The loss from 1968-2000 had been -0.08 m/year. This accelerated thinning this century has led to rapid area losses across the range. The mean June-September temperature for the Wind River (Wyoming-Division 9) rose 1.2^oC from 1900 to 2024. The mean June-September temperature exceeded 16.5^oC five times from 1900-1999 and nine times from 2000-2025. During the 1900-2024 period there is no trend in November-April total precipitation for the Wind River Division. It is the frequent warm summers that have accelerated glacier loss.

Twins Glacier in 1966 spread broadly across the mountain slope from Knapsack Col to The Buttress and had an area of 0.49 km² (GLIMS). The glacier extending close to the top of a rounded ridge does recieve wind enhanced snow deposition, but no avalanching. By 2015 the area had declined 75% to 0.13 km² and was primarily confined to an area below The Buttress (Fountain et al 2023). The 2013 image (from Bob Sihler) below illustrates a lack of snow or firn cover which indicates there is no longer a persistent accumulation zone, without which a glacier cannot survive (Pelto, 2010). From 2021-2025 each summer the glacier has lost all snow cover indicating it no longer has an accumulation zone. This has led to rapid thinning and development of a bedrock ridge that has nearly separated the glacier, note 2021 image (from Will Wickert). In 2025 the glacier lost all snowcover and was fragmenting into two sections with an area of 0.05 km² and 0.03 km² respectively. The ~50 visible annual layers indicates ice in the glacier is all from the last 75 years. The glacier is almost disappeared. The fragmentation and acceleration of area loss indicates this glacier cannot endure several more years of warm conditions that eliminates snow cover.

**Twins Glacier outline in blue on USGS map based on 1966 aerial photographs. Glacier extends from Knapsack Col to east end of The Buttress.**

Twins Glacier in 2013 seen from the northeast nestled below The Buttress. The diagonal bedrock ridge that is now fragmenting the glacier is not yet evident. The lack of snow or firn cover illustrates the glacier is not retaining snow cover. This image taken by Bob Sihler.

Twins Glacier in 2021 indicating rock rib extending diagonally across the glacier. There is limited retained snow or firn cover with a month left in the melt season. There are ~50 visible annual layers. The thin nature of the glacier is also evident. This is an image taken by Will Wickert.

North Cascade Glacier Climate Project 2025 Field Season Summary: Year 42

On October 7, 2025October 8, 2025 By mspeltoIn climate change glacier retreat, glacier climate change, Glacier Observations, glaciers salmon, North Cascade Glaciers

*Core field team in 2025 Emmett Elsom, Mauri Pelto, Jill Pelto and Caitlin Quirk*.

We hiked into North Cascade glacier to complete detailed observations for our 42nd consecutive year. These annual observations provide a detailed assessment of their response to climate change. For the third consecutive year North Cascade glacier on on average lost more than 2 m of glacier thickness. This cumulative loss of 7-8 m on most of the ranges glaciers that average 25-40 m in thickness represents 20% of their volume lost in just three years. On a few of the largest glaciers, such as those on Mount Baker that average 40-60 m in thickness the loss represents 12% of their volume lost.

The consequence is an acceleration of the collapse of the North Cascade glacier system. This landscape that has for long been shaped by ice is rapidly losing that glacier element. The rate of retreat for the glaciers we work on has accelerated so quickly that we are faced each year with changing terrain and new challenges. Beyond that, we are starting to really see the effect this retreat and the decrease in water has on the ecosystems both near the glaciers and further downstream. During the field season we love seeing the wildflowers, eating blueberries, and counting mountain goats. These are all parts of a habitat that is built around glaciers and snowpack. Seeing these shifts has been really difficult, but it helps to still return to these landscapes and continue to tell their stories through science and art. Below the story is told in images with captions by each of us who participated.

Two things that stood out during the 2025 field season were the strength of our collaborations, and the changing resources the glaciers are able to provide to the surrounding ecosystem. This visible change attracted the attention of KING5-Seattle NBC affiliate and CBS Morning News. At the bottom of this post the resulting footage is embedded. The film “Shaped By Ice” Jill and I worked on with Dan McComb has been a finalist in two recent film festivals, this footage also at bottom of this long read post.

*Working on Rainbow Glacier from left-Katie Hovind, Caitlin Quirk, Claire Seaman, Jill Pelto and Margaret Kingston*

We worked with two oil painters, one watercolor painter, one printmaker, two news film crews, a team of botanists, and more. The result of all these collaborations has led to so many great stories being created and shared about our collective work. It also meant our core group of field assistants had to be flexible to a changing group and the sometimes difficult and imperfect logistics that accompany that. -Jill Pelto

This photograph of an icefall at 2000 m (6700 ft) on the Easton glacier encompasses the wide range of emotions that I felt working on these glaciers this summer. The focal point of the picture is the wound inflicted upon the glacier by our changing climate. Bedrock and sediment creep through the gaping wound in the lowest icefall of the Easton, the opening visible for the first time in the project’s 42-year history. The place also holds a beauty, a sense of majesty that cannot be diminished by the tragic context of our work. The seracs at the top of the scene lean at impossible angles, destined to crash down onto the slope below, piercing the quiet of the snowy expanse in dramatic fashion. The dark annual layers in the glacier speak to the age of the ice, flowing down the flank of Mt. Baker over decades. The landscape has been a facet of my life for the past few years, as it falls upon the Easton Glacier route to the mountain’s summit. The icefall has always drawn me in as I pass, sparking a profound sense of wonder. It makes me deeply sad to see the beauty of such special places diminished, sad in a way that little else does. Over the past few years, I’ve come to like visiting these places to visiting an elderly loved one. While time may change them and even take them away from us, their beauty and meaning to me will hold true.-Emmett Elsom

How does being present in a place shape our understanding? To the left is a view of Sholes Glacier, complete with my on-site rendition. I can’t express how lucky I feel to have had the chance to experience these places first hand. To interact with a place by attempting to capture its likeness — paying attention to the negative space not only between the white snowpack and black exposed rock, but in the empty, carved-out area that used to be filled with ice. Experiencing the texture of the glacier under your feet, the cool air drifting off the snow, the good tired feeling of your body after physically traversing top to bottom. This is what you don’t get from a photo. To know places such as these is to love them and see their role in the world, and want to protect them. But so many never get the chance to understand them this way.-Claire Seaman

This field season I focused on exploring the once-barren foreland a glacier leaves behind. Studying the plants growing in the wake of the Easton Glacier made me reflect on the way life responds to these major changes. This photo of a bright monkeyflower cluster in the streambed of the nearby Sholes Glacier exemplifies this resilience and optimism to me. The Sholes, in the background, drains a lifeblood that will feed the watershed downstream into the Nooksack, supporting people, fisheries, and a whole riparian ecosystem. The eventual loss of glacial ice feeding the river will be catastrophic, yet the scarred space left behind will blossom with vegetation. Witnessing firsthand how staggering the extent of glacial retreat is can be overwhelming, but that bright patch of flowers stands as encouragement. Alone in an altered landscape, those flowers will pave the way for more to follow. Change is nuanced, and as we watch it occur we can change, sharing stories of the beauty of this environment supported by ice, and adapting our lives and policies in a way that can be the difference which keeps glaciers flowing.-Katie Hovind

As a backcountry skier and oil painter focused on winter landscapes of the North Cascades, the idea of painting glaciers in the field was a dream come true! I knew what we would see and learn about the health of our glaciers from the scientists would be highly emotional, but the power of these environments disappearing in our lifetimes is something my words fail to communicate how devastating that feels. During the study on Rainbow glacier I caught on film the moment a serac collapsed, loudly crashing, crumbling from a newly melted out rock knob down the mountain splitting into smaller and smaller pieces. It looked sickly as it broke before our eyes. Another unique experience was going into a teal, translucent, otherworldly ice cave. I have started 2 paintings to capture this vanishing environment. My goal is to assist the project in translating the study’s findings through landscape paintings that communicate the beauty of these places with titles that call attention to the retreating glaciers in the North Cascades. We all have a responsibility as humans to make individual changes to combat climate change and vote like fresh water and air depends on it, because it does. -Margaret Kingston

The pace of glacier change struck me hard this summer. Never before have humans lived with such a deglaciated Cascades mountain range. Not the settlers, not the fur trappers, not the first people who have been here for 13,000 years or more. Cultures and ecosystems spawned from the retreating edge of the Cordilleran Ice sheet into the Puget Sound area. Alpine glaciers fed streams, rivers, salmon, all kinds of human projects in Washington State. Our societies are shaped by the ice and now we are experiencing glaciers disappear.

I write this at the end of the 2025 hydrological year, waiting for winter snow to shelter the land I love in a cool white blanket. The devastation of the alpine glaciers has surfaced so frequently in conversation these last couple months. Those who have seen the mountains are alarmed as beds of ice they once knew to be hundreds of feet thick look shallow and frail, ice pitches that were once climbed are now grey gullies of rock, and volcanoes which have always been white are unnervingly gray and shrouded in smoke. The realities of climate change in the Northwest are clear.

It is a painful time to care about the glaciers of the Cascades. Witnessing the erosion of something so much older and bigger and impactful than myself is staggering. There is much action to be done in this new terrain but for now, I come back to this: I sit in the dying glaciers warm light as the sun rises, summon the deepest snowfall in years and tell the glacier that we care, that we were grateful for all the help watering our food and feeding our oceans and making sure our salmon had somewhere to live. We are here because of you. -Cal Waichler

Image description: This image shows a crevasse on the Easton Glacier of Mount Baker. The saturation is distorted because I shot this photo on 35mm and pre-exposed the film to light and heat to parallel the material effects of global warming on our glacier systems. The Easton glacier is a source of water for Baker Lake, which provides recreation and hydropower to the region. When I see this photo, I think of the impacts of glacial melt to water, energy, cultural, and economic resources in Washington. -Caitlin Quirk

*Columbia Glacier is one of sixty global reference glaciers*. *This summer it lost 5% of its volume.*

Lower Curtis Glacier continues to rapidly thin at the top of the glacier as well as at the terminus. The glacier retained additional avalanche accumulation, leading to a less negative balance than other glaciers.

*Rainbow Glacier is one of the sixty global reference glaciers. This year new bedrock began to emerge and expand in several icefalls, leading to serac fall.*

*Easton Glacier has retreated 700 m since 1990 and has a number of bedrock areas emerging in icefall up to 2500 m.*

*Lynch Glacier east and west side are separating. The upper basin did retain some snow in 2025.*

*Daniels Glacier lost all snowpack by the end of the summer and bedrock is quickly expanding amongst the glacier.*

The trajectory for most North Cascade glaciers is one of fragmentation. This is illustrated by Foss Glacier on the east flank of Mount Hinman, that we began observing annually in 1984 but stopped measuring as it fragmented. Foss Glacier from the top was a 1 km long and nearly 600 m wide glacier. In Sept. 2025 Cal Waichler captured view from the top with the two main fragments now less than 50 m wide and 300 m long.-Mauri Pelto

Leah Pezzetti KING5 meterologist hiked in with us to Lower Curtis Glacier.

The CBS team hiked into Sholes Glacier with us spending the night, and we had three generations of Pelto’s.

Svalbard Ice Cap Fragmentation and RecessionAccelerates with Snow Free Conditions Again in 2025

On September 11, 2025 By mspeltoIn climate change glacier retreat, glacier climate change, Heat waves glacier melt, svalbard glacier retreat

**Kvitkapa in Landsat images from 2014 and 2025 indicating the fragmentation from 3 to 8 different glacier parts.**

In 2022, 2023 and 2024 a number of ice caps and glaciers across Svalbard lost all snow cover, ie. Edgeøya 2022. The result by 2024 was that all firn cover had been lost as well on many of the ice caps of Edgeoya, such as on Digerfonna. This largely removes the ability of meltwater to refreeze. In 2025 we again see this playing out on the ice caps of Edgeøya. This all too familiar story indicates these glaciers lack a consistent accumulation zone that is essential for their survival

**Map of Kvitkapa from TopoSvalbard indicating one interconnected ice cap in 2000.**

Kvitkapa is an ice cap on a peninsula on the south coast of Edgeøya Island. In a map of this region from TopoSvalbard this is a single interconnected system of glaciers. By 2014 Landsat imagery indicates the ice cap has separated into three sections. By 2025 the ice cap has fragmented into eight different parts.

On the next peninsula to the east Kvalpyntfonna has also lost all snow cover again 2025.

**Kvalpyntfonna in Landsat image from 2025 having lost all its snow cover** **and has no residual firn from previous winters either.**

Further north and east on Edgeøya the Stonebreen ice cap has also losts its snow cover and firn cover driving thinning and retreat. The consistes loss of snow cover and resultant loss of firn cover, indicates that most ice caps Edgeøya cannot be sustained.

Stonebreen in false color Sentinel image illustrating retreat from 2020-2025. The lack of retained snow cover and residual firn will lead to continued rapid thinning and retreat.

Ptarmigan Ridge-Shuksan Arm Developing Landscape of Glacier Loss

On July 11, 2025 By mspeltoIn glacier climate change, Glacier Observations, North Cascade Glaciers

Glaciers on the ridge from Moutn Shuksan to Mount Baker that we observed to be active in mid 1980s, identified in GLIMS map below. Above Sentinel image from 9-9-2023. Glaciers that are no longer glaciers in yellow, seven of them including Mount Ann=MA, Shuksan Arm=SA, Coleman Pinnacle East/West=CPW/CPE, Camp Kiser=CK, Table Mountain=TM and HBB=Happy Bunny Butte. We still monitor each year Lower Curtis, Rainbow and Sholes.

The two most prominent mountains of the North Cascades Mount Shuksan and Mount Baker are connected by a ridge from Shuksan Arm to Ptarmigan Ridge. We visited 12 glaciers along and close to this ridge in the mid-1980s, to decide which to monitor annually. At that time each of these had active crevasses and significant area of glacier ice. We By the end of 2023 seven of the twelve glaciers are gone. We continue to monitor Lower Curtis, Rainbow and Sholes Glacier in detail. Portals and Ptarmigan Ridge Glacier which we visit every year, but do not assess in detail, will likely disappear in the next few years. Below is the evolving area and the date the glacier was lost, the area reported in the 1958/84 period and 2015 are from GLIMS and the 2023 area we determined from Sentinel imagery.

Glacier	GLIMS ID	Year Lost	1958/84 Area	2015 Area	2023 Area
Camp Kiser	G238275E48809N	1993	0.22	0.03	0
Happy Bunny Butte	G238277E48834N	2005	0.166	0	0
Table Mountain	G238295E48850N	2015	0.158	0	0.008
Coleman Pinnacle	G238269E48826N	2018	0.56	0.031	0.018
Mount Ann	G238341E48818N	2022	0.12	0.07	0.01
Shuksan Arm	G238362E48838N	2023	0.16	0.07	0.03

1963 image of Ptarmigan Ridge sent to me by Austin Post.

Ptarmigan Ridge glaciers in 1993-all small but still all nearly joined.

In 2024 the lack of glacier ice or perennial snow along Ptarmigan Ridge is evident.

North Cascade Glacier Accumulation Season 2025 and Forecast Outlook

On April 27, 2025May 3, 2025 By mspeltoIn glacier climate change, Glacier Observations, North Cascade Glaciers

**As April ends there is a sharp snowline ranging from 1200 m at Mount Baker to 1400 m at Cascade Pass. Above 1500 m the melt season is just getting started.**

As the accumulation season comes to an end for North Cascade glaciers it is worth reviewing this winter and looking ahead with a forecast for glacier mass balance by the end of summer 2025. The winter of 2025 at NOAA’s Washington Cascade Mountain West Division 5 records indicate that this winter was below the declining trendline of total precipitation with a mean of 54.8 inches, down slightly from last year. Winter temperatures were again warm at 33.2^o F but close to the expected rising trend line average.

**The 1946 to 2025 winter (November-March) mean temperature and total precipitation for the Western Cascade Mountains-Division 5 weather stations.**

The mean April 1 snow water equivalent (swe) at the six North Cascade Snotel sites with a consistent long term record was 0.72 m. This is below the declining trend line and 31% below the long term average for the 1946-2025 period. This is above the 2024 value, but in the lowest quintile. Mount Baker ski area has reported 585 inches of snowfall through April 21, which is ~30% percentile. April 1 swe is the key date for asssessment for winter snowpack water resources. For glaciers the accumulation season typically continues until the end or April or early May. This year snowpack depth at Mount Baker Ski Area (1280 m) increased from 148 inches on April 1 to 164 inches on April 9 and then declining to 119 inches by May 1 (80% of normal). A similar pattern was seen at Stevens Pass-Grace Lake station (1460 m) with snowpack depth on April 1 of 107 inches, increasing to 114 inches by April 9 and decreasing to 82 inches by May 1. These stations are several hundred meters below glacier elevations. At Lyman Lake Snotel (1800 m) snowpack SWE which most closely matches the glacier elevations was 40.1 inches rising to 42.5 inches by April 11 and declining to 35.9 inches by May 1, ~60% of normal. At the Middle Fork Nooksack site (1520 m) snowpack was 44.8 inches SWE on April 1, rising to 49 inches by April 11 and declining to 46 inches on May 1, 67% of normal . This illustrates that at glacier elevations snowpack would have also increased in mid-April, before a slow decline in the latter part of the month. There were a number of atmospheric rivers that drove a higher snowline than usual as May starts, but also led to a rapid increase in snowpack above the snowline.

**The mean April 1 SWE from 1946-2025 at six long term SNOTEL stations: Stampede Pass, Fish Lake, Stevens Pass, Lyman Lake, Park Creek and Rainy Pass.**

As the melt season begins, based on the above the winter snowpack on glaciers on May 1 are 70-80% of normal. Eric Gilbertson measured snowpack on the summit Colfax Peak at 17.3 ft (5.27 m) on April 18, 2025. This is a location that is to some extent wind scoured and would be less than the depth on the adjacent glacier, a normal year there is 8-9 m of snowpack at 2300-2800 m. On Eldorado Peak they found 25.3 feet on April 27, 2025. This is the depth expected for this location in a year with 75-80% of normal snowpack. It is a location that appears to balance enhanced deposition and scour. Weather conditions in the Pacific Northwest are forecast to have above average temperatures for the upcoming 90 day period. This combined with the below average snowpack on glaciers on May 1, will yield another year where ice thickness loss exceeds 1 m across the glaciers, as each of the last four years have. The average from 2014-2024 has been -1.41 m, which is a 1.5 thick slice of the glacier lost each year. The range expected this year is -1.2 m to -2.4 m. How much will depend on the specific weather and the frequency and intensity of heat waves.

**Mean mass balance observed in the field annually by the North Cascade Glacier Climate Project.**

Preservation Of North Cascade Glaciers

On January 26, 2025 By mspeltoIn climate change glacier retreat, glacier climate change

Recipe for Mountain Glacier Formation:

**Recent glacier thinning due primarily to warm summers has exposed new bedrock knobs on upper portions of Deming, Easton and Squak Glacier on Mounty Baker, Washington**

Find a location where temperatures are cold for at least 7 months of the year. This location also needs to have substantial snowfall and ideally where addtiional snow is added via avalanches or wind depostion. With these ingredients on hand, let stand for a few decades, while the snow accumulates to a thickness of at least 20 m. A key step in the recipe is the transformation of snow to ice under its own weight and with some meltwater percoloation and refreezing. Unlike bread dough you do not need stir or kneed during this period. Once there is a volume . For the glacier to persist the glacier must retain accumulation across a significant portion of its surface by the end of summer. To maintain its size we have observed this percentage to vary from 50-70% on North Cascade glaciers. The lack of a persistent accumulation zone will lead to loss of that glacier. of 500,000 m3 you are either a glacier or at the threshold of being a glacier depending on how steep the underlying slope is. Unlike rolling out a pie crust, this does not need to be an even thickness, or made on a flat surface. As the glacier matures it will develop crevasses indicating movement, which is an essential characteristic of a glacier. It is not a passive feature, its movement allows it to begin to sculpt its landscape.

Current Glacier Loss in North Cascade Range, Washington

Many centuries or millenia later, the glacier has become a critical part of the landscape. Yet, changing climate is leading to the loss of many. In the North Cascades glaciers have been losing close to 1% of their volume annually over the last 40 years, with the rate rising to over 2% in the last decade. The glaciers cover 200 km²almost all of which are in steep high elevation Wilderness areas not proximate to roads. In 2010 we noted that 2/3 of North Cascade glaciers could not survive current climate. Today this percentage has increased to more than 90%. There are 31 glaciers in the range that I completed observations on in the 1980s that are now gone. Our annual field expedition has noted the glaciers losing ~1.5 m of thickness annually in the last decade.

**Deglaciated area below Easton Glacier, Mount Baker, WA in 2023.**

Are there any Preservatives we can add to the Recipe?

What would it take to preserve the Easton Glacier in the North Cascades?

The largest snowmaking operation in North America is at Killington Ski Area, VT. At maximum capacity they can convert 35,000 m3 of water into snow per day. Given that Easton Glacier has an area of 2.5 km2 and has been losing 1.5 m water equivalent thickness per year, 3.75 million m3 of water equivalent snow has to be produced.This would take 108 days at maximum capacity of the more than 2000 snow guns. This ignores enviornmental laws and the logistics of water supply, piping, snow gun placement and electricity. This all in an environment of harsh weather with avalanches and crevasses.

**Killington, Vermont snowmaking operation.**

To cover the glacier with geotextiles during the summer, requires 2.5 million square meter of material that would be to installed each summer and removed each winter to allow accumulation, of course summer recreation would not be practical on the glacier. The geotextiles do not last long in these conditions and cost ~$2 per square meter. How to anchor these in place and connect on a crevasse glacier would be very difficult, which is why usually only a portion of the glacier near the terminus is covered, which does not help the overall situation of glacier loss.

**Tarps at top of Gurschen Glacier, Switzerland, that reduce the melt locally note groomer for scale.**

There are many more glaciers in this range and around the world where this same confounding logistical challenges make any artificial attempts at preservation ridiculous beyond a few isolated glaciers that are already close to existing infrastructure.

When I began this work in 1984 solar power and wind power did not exist, these are not the only renewable sources of power, and just one of many approaches to reducing CO2 emissions, but they are illustrative of rapid growth from insignificance. The Renewalbes 2014 Global Status Report and the Renewables 2024 Global Status Reports provides measures of renewaable energy production over the last decade. Global capacity for Solar Photovoltaic energy production has risen from 4 GW in 2004 to 190 GW in 2014 and then to 1600 GW in 2023. Global Capacity for Windpower has risen from 48 GW in 2004 to 370 GW in 2014 and in 2023 was 1020 GW. In 2023 alone over 500 GW was added to these two sources combined. See below for charts from this report on increased capacity. This is a preservative under development that can work with continued emphasis and in concert with other items such power grid infrastructure improvement and electric/hybrid automobile manufacturing expansion.

Glacier Retreat on Yakutat Foreland, Alaska Generates Fastest Lake Growth in United States

On November 4, 2024November 11, 2024 By mspeltoIn alaska glacier retreat, glacier climate change, Glacier Observations2 Comments

Yakutat, Alsek and Grand Plateau Glacier retreat from 1984 to 2024 has led to the three lakes expanding from 130 km²to 240 km² as illustrated by this pair of Landsat images. Fastest lake expansion in the nation in this period.

Three adjacent glaciers terminating on the coastal plain near Yakutat, Alaska have had a spectacular retreat in the last 40 years leading to rapid lake growth; Yakutat Glacier, Alsek Glacier and Grand Plateau Glacier. This is the story of the most rapid area of lake growth in the United States this century.

Alsek Glacier descends from the Fairweather Range terminating in Alsek Lake on the coastal plain. In the early part of the 20th century the glacier terminated at Gateway Knob (G) near the outlet of Alsek River from Alsek Lake, with just a small fringing lake present (Molnia, 2005). At that time it had a joint terminus with Grand Plateau Glacier. In 1960 the glacier had a single terminus downstream of an unnamed island in Alsek Lake, that Austin Post (USGS Glaciologisst) told me reminded him of a boats prow. This “Prow Knob” (P) much like Gateway Knob a century ago stabilized the terminus (Pelto, 2017). The glacier retreated 5-6 km by 1984 from Gateway Knob with the lake growing to an area of 45 km². From 1984-2024 the retreat has been: 5.3 km for the northern terminus, 5.5 km for the southern terminus and 7.8 km for the northern arm of Grand Plateau Glacier. Alsek Lake has grown from 45 km² to 75 km² since 1984. In Octobrer 2024 there remains a narrow connection to Prow Knob that will not survive another year.

Alsek Glacier retreat from 1999-2013 in Landsat images. Red arrows mark the 1984 terminus location, yellow arrows the 2022 terminus location, AR=Alsek River, GP=Grand Plateau, PK=Prow Knob, G=Gateway Knob, A=glacier junction, B=tributary separation, C=tributary separation, D=tributary confluence.

Alsek Glacier retreat from 2018-2021 in Landsat images. Red arrows mark the 1984 terminus location, yellow arrows the 2022 terminus location, pink arrows indicate tributary separation, AR=Alsek River, GP=Grand Plateau, PK=Prow Knob, G=Gateway Knob, A=glacier junction, B=tributary separation, C=tributary separation, D=tributary confluence.

Yakutat Glacier, Alaska experienced a spectacular retreat losing 45 km² from 2010-2018, as a result of rising ELA leading to rapid thinning of the lower glacier (Truessel et al, 2013). The Yakutat Glacier during the 1894-1895 Alaskan Boundary Survey ended near a terminal moraine on a flat coastal outwash plain. By 1906 the glacier had retreated from the moraine and a new lake was forming, Harlequin Lake. By 1984 the lake had expanded to an area of 50 km². The 2018 image compares the 2010 position (yellow dots) with 2018 (orange dots), indicating an area of 45 km² lost in less than a decade (NASA EO, 2018). There are some small icebergs in 2018. By 2024 further retreat has expanded the total lake area to 105 km². The main terminus retreated 7 km. The ability to produce icebergs as large as in 2015 has been lost as the calving front has been restricted by the Peninsula which is now 3 km long, leaving less than a 3 km wide calving front. The narrower calving front and reduced water depth should in the short term reduce retreat. Truessel et al (2015) modelling indicated a reduced rate of retreat from 2020-2030, which supports the expected reduced calving. Their model also indicates the glacier will disappear between 2070 and 2110 depending on the warming scenario.

**Expansion of Harlequin Lake due to retreat of Yakutat Glacier indicated on these 2010 and 2018 Landsat images. Yellow dots mark the ice front, orange dots the 2010 margin in 2018.**

**Expansion of Harlequin Lake due to retreat of Yakutat Glacier, yellow boundary marks the deglaciated region on these Landsat images from 1999 and 2020.**

Grand Plateau Glacier drains southwest from Mount Fairweather in southeast Alaska. The glacier advanced during the Little Ice age to the Alaskan coastline. Early maps from 1908 show no lake at the terminus of the glacier. The 1948 map (below) shows three small distinct lakes at the terminus of the main glacier and a just developing lake at the terminus of the southern distributary terminus (D). The distance from the Nunatak (N) to the terminus was 11 km in 1948. The lake at D is 400 m wide.In 2024 the lake area has grown further to 49 km², as a result of a retreat of 8 km since 1948 and 5.5 km since 1984. Today a second island is emerging at the terminus, Point A. The distributary tongue to the southeast now terminates in a lake that is now 5.2 km long, a 4.8 km retreat since 1948 and 2.6 km since 1984. The combination of higher snowlines and increased calving into the terminus lake will continue to lead to retreat of this still mighty river of ice (Pelto, 2024).

There will be continued glacier retreat and lake expansion in 2025, as the new lake district continues to expand as a result of climate change. Loso et al (2021) note that retreat of Grand Plateau Glacier will change the outlet of Alsek Lake from Dry Bay to the Grand Plateau Lake, creating one larger lake.

**Grand Plateau Glacier retreat from 1984 to 2013 in Landsat images. Main tributaries indicated by red arrows also showing snowline. Orange arrows indicate 1984 terminus and pink arrows 2013 terminus.**

Burroughs Glacier, Alaska Down to Last 1%

On February 2, 2023April 20, 2024 By mspeltoIn alaska glacier retreat, glacier climate change1 Comment

Burroughs Glacier in 1986 and 2022 Landsat images. The red arrow marks the west margin and the yellow arrow the east margin in 1986. Yellow dots mark the outline of the glacier in 2022. Glacier area declined from 12.5 km² to 1.5 km² during this 36 year period.

Burroughs Glacier in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska has been retreating without pause since 1892 when it was part of the Muir Glacier complex. The glacier is unusual in that it has not had an accumulation zone over the last century, where snow persists through the year. Without an accumulation zone a glacier cannot survive (Pelto, 2010). Mickelson (1971) summarized the retreat of the glacier from 1892-1960. In 1892 the Burroughs ice plateau was assessed as a 10 km by 25 km ice cap. By 1960 it had thinned by as much as 750 m and its calving margin had retreated 27 km.. By the 1970’s the glacier was essentially stagnant (Molnia, 2008). In 1982 I briefly visited the western terminus, which provided a still imposing slope, made more so by the rain and clouds lowering onto its surface.

Here we examine the glacier in Landsat imagery from 1986 to 2022 to illustrate the retreat, the lack of snowcover and the thinning. In the 1948 map of Burroughs Glacier, the glacier is 12.1 km long, and much of the glacier is already stagnant, the glacier has both a north and south terminus, purple arrows. To the west of Burroughs Glacier is Plateau Glacier (P).

Burroughs Glacier in 1948 USGS map.

In 1948 Burroughs Glacier has an area of 22 km² and is 12.5 km long, with the crest of the glacier at ~1500 feet. In 1986 Burroughs Glacier has an area of 12.5 km² and has no snowcover by mid-summer. The glacier terminates in proglacial lakes at both the north and south terminus red and yellow arrow respectively, and is 9 km long, purple arrows indicate 1948 terminus. By 1986 Plateau Glacier has only three small remnants marked by P, surrounding these vegetation is still limited, with considerable expanse of bare glacial sediments. By 2003 Plateau Glacier is gone and vegetation is filling in most of the area that was still bare sediment in 1986. In 2003 Burroughs Glacier again lacks any snowcover. The southern terminus has retreated 2.2 km from the lake, and the northern terminus has retreated into a second lake basin. The glacier is 6.3 km long, half of its length in 1948. In 2004 snowcover is again lacking anywhere on the glacier. In 2010 snowcover is lacking and retreat has continued shrinking the glacier to 5.4 km in length. The glacier was assessed with an area of 2.8 km² and a median elevation of 313 m (1025 feet) by GLIMS. In 2013 the glacier lacks snowcover in this September Landsat image even though snow has returned to the surrounding mountains. This indicates how far below the snowline the glacier lies. Portions of a glacier are supposed to be the first locations that receive snowcover. The terminus has continued to retreat and the glacier was 4.6 km long in 2013. The northern terminus was retreating into a third basin of the proglacial lake. Vegetation has reclaimed almost all of the Plateau Glacier area and has reclaimed the region deglaciated by Burroughs Glacier before 2003. By 2022 the glacier area has been reduced to 1.5 km², this is just 12% of its area remaining from 1986 and 1% of the 1892 area. The length of the glacier in 2022 is 2.3 km, only 50% of the lenght just a decade ago, and ~20% of the 1948 length.

Thinning of this glacier from 1948-2016 is evident from a comparison of topographic maps. Thinning in remaining glacier are averages 225 m during this period, that is a rate of ~3.3 m/year. Larsen et al (2007) had found a thinning rate of ~3 m/year for the 1948-2000 period.

Overlay of 1948 (blue labeled contours) and 2014 elevation map (Brown labeled contours) for Burroughs Glacier.

Burroughs Glacier has not been in equilibrium with climate since the end of the Little Ice Age. Its retreat has been hastened by the rising snowline of the last decade note by Pelto et al (2013) on Brady Glacier. This glacier area has declined by 88% since 1986, with volume loss being even larger. Retreat usually increases as elevation declines and as the size of the remnant ice declines. There is no debris cover or persistent snowcover to slow the loss. Thus, it seems likely this glacier will be gone within 25 years. The 2011 Google Earth image at bottom indicates no snow, the reduced albedo from the dirty surface and a few crevasses near the margin that are collapse features. This is unlike nearby glaciers that are retreating significantly but not disappearing, like Brady Glacier, Geikie Glacier, Yakutat Glacier and Riggs Glacier.

1986 Landsat image of Burroughs Glacier. The purple arrows mark the 1948 margin, red arrow the west margin in 1986 and the yellow arrow the east margin.

2003 Landsat image of Burroughs Glacier. The red arrow marks the west margin in 1986 and the yellow arrow the east margin.

2004 Landsat image of Burroughs Glacier. The red arrow marks the west margin in 1986 and the yellow arrow the east margin.

2010 Landsat image of Burroughs Glacier. The red arrow marks the west margin in 1986 and the yellow arrow the east margin.

2013 Landsat image of Burroughs Glacier. The purple arrows mark the 1948 margin, red arrow the west margin in 1986 and the yellow arrow the east margin in 1986, pink arrows the 2013 margin.

2022 false color Sentinel image of Burroughs Glacier. The ice is dirty but not debris covered at this point.

Suru Basin, Ladakh India Glaciers Bare of Snowcover in August 2022

On November 22, 2022April 20, 2024 By mspeltoIn glacier climate change, Himalaya glacier retreat, India glacier retreat

Suru Basin glaciers in 1998 and 2022 Landsat images. Red arrow marks the 1998 terminus location, yellow arrow the 2022 terminus location. S=Shafat Glacier, D=Dilung Glacier. Glacier 1-4 are unnamed glaciers that lost almost all snowcover in 2022.

Glaciers of the Suru Basin, draining the Ladakh Range, a drier region of the Himalaya, was significantly by the 2022 pre-monsoon and monsoon season warmth. Here we focus on a group of glaciers near Shafat and Dilung Glacier that lost snowcover in 2022. We also look at the retreat of Shafat and Dilung Glacier. Shafat Glacier occupies the northeast flank of Nun Kun Peak in Ladakh India and drains into the Suru valley. The main valley glacier has suffered from detached tributaries leading to terminus area stagnation (Pelto, 2021). Dilung Glacier retreat has led to an expanding proglacial lake. Shukla et al (2020) identified an increase in annual temperature has driven a 6% loss in regional glacier area and a 62% expansion in debris cover from 1971-2017. Here we compare Landsat imagery from 1998-2022 to identify this glaciers response to climate change.

In 1998 the terminus of Shafat Glacier was at the red arrow near a junction with a key tributary, with clean active ice reaching to the terminus. By 2022 the active ice is 2.5 km upglacier from this point at the yellow arrow, though there is stagnant debris covered ice below this point. Dilung Glacier in 1998 terminates in a 1.1 km long proglacial lake. By 2022 the glacier has retreated 900 m, resulting in a 2.0 km long lake. Rashid and Majeed (2018) indicate nearby Drang Drung Glacier has retreated 925 m since 1971, with a sharp increase after 2014.

For an alpine glacier to have a balanced annual budget it has to be 50-60 snowcovered at the end of the melt season. On Sept. 1, 2022 there are four glaciers 1-4 in this region that have 0-10% snowcover left. The snowcover is above 5300 m. This is illustrative of significant mass losses in 2022. On Dilung Glacier and Shafat Glacier the snowcover is ~20% and is confined to the regions above 5300 m. There is some cloudcover over the top of the Shafat Glacier in the 9-1-2022 Landsat image.

Suru Basin glaciers in September 1, 2022 Landsat image. Glacier 1-4 are unnamed glaciers that lost almost all snowcover in 2022. S=Shafat Glacier, D=Dilung Glacier. The snowline is above 5300 m.

Alpine Glaciers Section-State of the Climate 2021

On August 31, 2022April 20, 2024 By mspeltoIn glacier climate change, Glacier Observations

The 32nd annual State of the Climate report was published today. For the 14th year I have written the Alpine Glacier section chronicling their response for the the hydrological 2020/21 utilizing the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) data sets. WGMS reference glaciers (30+ years of continuous observation) experienced a mass balance loss of -900 mm w.e., compared to -700 mm w.e. in 2019/20. From 1970-2021 the eight most negative mass balance years were recorded after 2010.

Figure 1. illustrates glacier mass balance for the WGMS global reference glaciers with more than 30 continued observation years for the time-period 1970-2020. Global values are calculated using a single value (averaged) for each of 19 mountain regions in order to avoid a bias to well observed regions.

In 2021, a negative annual mass balance was reported from 31 of the 32 reference glaciers reported to the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). The mean annual mass balance of the 32 reference glaciers reporting is -900 mm w.e., this includes data from 12 nations on four continents. This value is not the final regionally averaged global value. This will make 2021 the 34^th consecutive year with a global alpine mass balance loss, and the 13th consecutive year with a mean global mass balance below -500 mm w.e..

The rate of thinning increased from –527 mma⁻¹ for 2000-2009 to – 896 mma⁻¹ for 2010-2019 (WGMS, 2021). This agrees well with the satellite survey of 200,000 alpine glacier by Hugonnet et al (2021) who identified a thinning rate excluding ice sheet peripheral glaciers of 360 ± 210 mma⁻¹ in 2000 to 690 ± 150 mma^-1 in 2019. Alpine glaciers lost a mass of 267 ± 16 Gta^-1from 2000-2019, equivalent to 21 ± 3 per cent of the observed global sea-level rise (Hugonnet et al, 2021). More frequent and intense heat waves continue to take a toll on alpine glaciers.

All 17 reporting glaciers in the Alps had a negative mass balance averaging – 682 mm in 2021. In Austria in 2020, of the 92 glaciers with annual terminus observations 85 (93.4%) withdrew and seven remained stationary (Lieb and Kellerer-Pirklbauer, 2021). This retreat trend will continue in 2021, with another year of mass balance loss.

In Norway the six reporting glaciers all had a negative mass balance yielding an average mass balance of -671 mm in 2021. On Svalbard the mean loss of the four reporting glaciers was -227 mm. Iceland completed surveys of nine glacier, all nine had negative balances with a mean mass balance of -1160 mm.

In the Western Canada and the United States and Washington all 14 glaciers observed in 2021 had a negative mass balance averaging -1635 mm. The exceptional heat wave during late June and early July set the stage for the large glacier mass loss. In Alaska three of the four glaciers had a negative mass balance with a mean annual balance of -528 mm.

Upper portion of Easton Glacier with a month left in the melt season

In South America, 2021 mass balance data were reported from three glaciers in Argentina, two glaciers in Chile, and one in Columbia, all were negative with a mean of -861 mm. This is greater than the 2000-2018 average loss observed in the Andes of −720 ± 220 mma^-1 (Dussaillant et. al., 2019).

In the High Mountain Asia fifteen of eighteen glaciers reported negative balances in 2021. The average mass balance was-468 mm. Early winter of 2021 was warm and dry across the Himalayan Region. This was capped off by record warmth in the Mount Everest region leading to the snow line on glaciers rising and snow free glaciers up to 6000 m (Pelto, et al., 2021). This illustrates that the ablation season no longer always ends when winter begins. The importance of winter conditions was further noted by Potocki et al (2022) who report on an ice core drilled on South Col Glacier on Mount Everest at 8020 m revealing a contemporary sublimation driven thinning of ~2000 mma^-1.

References

Dussaillant, I., Berthier, E., Brun, F., Masiokas, M., Hugonnet, R., Favier, V., Rabatel, A., Pitte, P.and Ruiz, L.,2019: Two decades of glacier mass loss along the Andes. Nat. Geosci. 12, 802–808. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0432-5

Hugonnet, R., McNabb, R., Berthier, E. et al 2021: Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century. Nature 592, 726–731. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03436-z

Lieb, G.K. and A. Kellerer-Pirklbauer 2021: Sammelbericht über die Gletschermessungen des Österreichischen Alpenvereins im Jahr 2020. Letzter Bericht: Bergauf 2/2020, Jg. 75 (145), S. 6–15, https://www.alpenverein.at/

Pelto, M.; Panday, P.; Matthews, T.; Maurer, J.; Perry, L.B., 2021: Observations of Winter Ablation on Glaciers in the Mount Everest Region in 2020–2021. Remote Sens. 13, 2692. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13142692.

Potocki, M., Mayewski, P.A., Matthews, T. et al, 2022: Mt. Everest’s highest glacier is a sentinel for accelerating ice loss. Nature Clim. Atmos. Sci., 5, 7. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00230-0.

WGMS 2021: Global Glacier Change Bulletin No. 4 (2018-2019). Zemp, M., Nussbaumer, S. U., Gärtner-Roer, I., Bannwart, J., Paul, F., and Hoelzle, M. (eds.), ISC(WDS)/IUGG(IACS)/UNEP/UNESCO/WMO, World Glacier Monitoring Service, Zurich, Switzerland, 278 pp., doi:10.5904/wgms-fog-2021-05.

World Glacier Monitoring Service: Fluctuations of Glaciers (FoG) Database

DOI for current scientific data (Identifier): 10.5904/wgms-fog-2021-05

https://wgms.ch/data_databaseversions/

Whitney Glacier, Mount Shasta snow free again in 2022

On August 26, 2022April 20, 2024 By mspeltoIn glacier climate change4 Comments

Whitney Glacier on August 25, 2022 in Sentinel image. Green arrows separation points, yellow arrows remaining snowpack

The summer of 2021 proved to be catastrophic for Whitney Glacier on Mount Shasta, California in terms of volume loss, ~15% leading to long term impacts, such as the 50% area reduction and 1000 m retreat since 2005. The glacier lost 100% of its 2021 snowpack and was in the process of separating into three segments. In 2022 it was important for the glacier to offset some of this loss with a healthy retained snowpack through the sumer. Unfortunately by mid-August it is evident that the glacier will again be snow free by end of summer in 2022. This will continue the rapid area and volume loss and continue the separation process.

Here we examine local weather records and Sentinel imagery to illustrate the conditions in 2022. The winter of 2022 started off well with near record December snowfall, followed by limited snowfall and temperatures averaging +3 C in Shasta County, until another big month in April. The results was well below average snowpack in early spring. A cool wet April and May preserved the limited snowpack. July experienced average temperatures 2.2 C above normal in Shasta County (NCEI-NOAA County Mapping)

Whitney Glacier in Sentinel images from 8-30-2020, 8-31-2021 and 8-15-2022. Green arrows separation points, yellow arrows remaining snowpack and T=terminus location,.

Fragmentation of the glaciers is evident in the comparison from 9-4-2018 and 9-4-2022, there are seventeen fragments left, six fragments that have melted away also.

A comparison of August snowcover from 2020-2022 illustrates the small patch that remained in 2021, yellow arrow, and the small patches left in mid-August of 2022. The ongoing separation is evident at two locations sho.w with green arrows. From August 2020-August 2022 the glacier area has declined from 0.72 km ² to 0.57 km ² a ~20% loss. The width of the glacier at the two arrows has been reduced by ~50% to 50 m at the lower elevation of 3250 mand 100 m at the upper elevation of 3600 m. A key issue this summer again has been the high temperatures in July and August, in particular the high minimum temperatures, preventing the snow surface from freezing at night and shutting off the melt. At Gray Butte, 2450 m, the remote weather station indicates a period from July 9-August 7 where the temperature never dropped below 10 C (50 F).

Gray Butte summer temperatures at an hourly interval (Data from Mount Shasta Avalanche Center)

The velocity in two primary icefalls above each of the separation points is declining based on the NASA_IT’s LIVE application. The reduced flux combined with high summer melt in 2021 and 2022 will continue to accelerate the separation.